NFL playoff picture after Week 16: Eliminated Cowboys knock Bucs out of first place

Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.

Here’s where things stand with Week 16 of the 2024 season nearly complete:

NFC playoff picture

x – 1. Detroit Lions (13-2), NFC North leaders: They began Sunday in a three-way tie atop the conference and deadlocked for the division lead with Minnesota. By day’s end, things were looking up slightly after their win in Chicago and Philadelphia’s loss at Washington. The division remains neck and neck following Minnesota’s win at Seattle. Winning out gives the Lions everything they want, including home-field advantage. So would a win at San Francisco in Week 17 combined with a Minnesota loss. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Vikings

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x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), NFC East leaders: Rough Sunday. They lost their 10-game winning streak, an opportunity to wrap up the division and fell a game behind Detroit and Minnesota in the race for home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6), NFC West leaders: Beat Seattle in Week 18, and the division is theirs. A win and some help in Week 17 would get it done early. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7), NFC South leaders:Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. won his starting debut Sunday against the lowly Giants. But the real payoff came later Sunday, when the Bucs – they were swept earlier in the season by Atlanta – lost at Dallas. The Falcons can win the division in Week 17. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Panthers

x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2), wild card No. 1: Like Detroit, they control their own fate in the NFC North – win out, and the division and No. 1 seed are Minnesota’s. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions

6. Green Bay Packers (10-4), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and losing once already to Minnesota has relegated the Pack to wild-card status. Win this Monday against New Orleans, and they lock into the postseason field. Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

7. Washington Commanders (10-5), wild card No. 3: By beating the Eagles on Sunday, they didn’t quite clinch a postseason berth – but they did remain alive in the NFC East while eliminating both the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers from the playoff picture. A win in Week 17 puts Washington into the dance. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), in the hunt: Sunday night, they couldn’t handle a Dallas team eliminated from playoff contention earlier in the day. The Bucs could see their aspirations to keep the NFC South throne die next week. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7), in the hunt: After Sunday’s loss to Minnesota, they’re going to need some help to win the NFC West. Neither the Seahawks nor Rams have a pathway to a wild-card berth. Remaining schedule: at Bears, at Rams

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AFC playoff picture

y – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1), AFC West champions: QB Patrick Mahomes weathered Saturday’s win over Houston, which means K.C. gets the No. 1 seed with one more win – perhaps on Christmas Day? – or Buffalo loss. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, at Broncos

y – 2. Buffalo Bills (12-3), AFC East champions: They barely beat lightly regarded New England on Sunday, but it’s enough to keep the Bills in the chase for home-field advantage – which will require two more wins plus two Chiefs defeats. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Patriots

x – 3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), AFC North leaders: Rough Saturday. First, They fell out of the running for the No. 1 seed by virtue of Kansas City’s win. Then, Pittsburgh fumbled an opportunity to clinch the division. Looks like they’re in a dogfight the rest of the way with Baltimore, which appears to have the more favorable schedule to close the regular season. The Steelers retain first place in the division – for now – by virtue of a one-game lead over the Ravens in AFC games, i.e., not much at all. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

y – 4. Houston Texans (9-6), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year but are just about locked in as the fourth seed … which would mean a tough wild-card matchup, very likely against an AFC North team. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Titans

x – 5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5), wild card No. 1: What a Christmas present. They clinched their postseason spot, averted a Pittsburgh AFC North crown, are now very much alive themselves to win the division … and might have recaptured the Super Bowl form they showed earlier in the season. Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Browns

6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), wild card No. 2: By sweeping the Broncos for the first time in 14 years, they prevented Denver from clinching Thursday while leapfrogging their division rivals and picking up the season tiebreaker (by virtue of the sweep). One more win locks Bolts into the field. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, at Raiders

7. Denver Broncos (9-6), wild card No. 3: They had a win-and-in scenario Thursday to stamp their first postseason trip since winning Super Bowl 50 nine years ago. Now, they can’t get in this weekend, though one more win will advance the Broncos to the playoffs. But major trouble ahead if they lose to Cincinnati in Week 17. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8), in the hunt: Still technically alive after beating the Titans on Sunday. Their record in AFC games (6-5) is better than Miami’s (5-5) or Cincinnati’s (4-6). Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Jaguars

9. Miami Dolphins (7-8), in the hunt: Still technically alive after beating the 49ers on Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Browns, at Jets

10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8), in the hunt: Still technically alive after beating the Browns on Sunday. Though they appear like the best team outside the field, they’ll need the most help to get in, including losses by both the Colts and Dolphins. Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Steelers