Arsenal suffered a tough 2-0 loss at the Emirates to Newcastle in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semifinal. There is still the return leg to win the tie on aggregate but given Arsenal’s struggles at St. James’ Park that’s a tall ask.

The difference in the match — and probably the tie — is that Newcastle have Alexander Isak (and Arsenal’s best attacker, Bukayo Saka, is out injured). The visitors had two chances on the evening: Isak scored one and assisted the other. That was basically the whole of their 1.22 xG generated for the match.

Arsenal, on the other hand, generated north of 3.0 xG but couldn’t find the back of the net. A little more than half of that came from set pieces, but the Gunners generated more open play xG than did Newcastle nonetheless. Gabriel Martinelli hit the post (on a great run, mind you). Jurrien Timber headed over the bar. Kai Havertz missed a wide open header completely and had the ball go off his shoulder. Arsenal had more than 10 shots blocked, which was well done by the Newcastle defense, and also couldn’t find a gritty goal from several scrambles in the box.

I’m not too upset about the the loss, honestly. It wasn’t one of those tons of possession, no chances losses. Arsenal generated chances. They couldn’t finish them. That’s not a new problem and it’s not one that is likely to be fixed this season by anything other than the guys on the roster finding a bit of form.

That’s tough to do when you’re worn out, though. It was plain to see, at least for me — these guys don’t have much left in the tank. Martin Ødegaard doesn’t look right. Kai Havertz seems to be low on energy. Declan Rice isn’t covering ground like he did last season. Maybe it’s just the illness that has gone through the squad combined with the little knocks and dings you pick up through a season.

Even with all that, Arsenal were still at least as good, arguably better, than Newcastle. As has been the story of the season, things just didn’t go the Gunners’ way. Although the loss isn’t entirely down to bad bounces and luck. Uncharacteristically, the defense was partially to blame.

Arsenal, with all their aerial prowess at the back, shouldn’t be losing contested headers from long free kicks, as they did on the first goal. They should also not lose track of Alexander Isak in the box. Martin Ødegaard’s marking was particularly poor and Gabriel was caught betwixt and between. On the second goal, Isak was somehow able to find space for a shot despite three Arsenal defenders surrounding him in the box, and Jurrien Timber lost track of Anthony Gordon to get beaten to the rebound.

The Gunners don’t usually make those types of defensive errors. Even though it felt like mistakes had crept into the backline to open the season, they’d long since ironed things out and have been playing lights-out defense for a while. Maybe it’s down to the fatigue that seems to be permeating the squad — tired bodies lead to tired minds and both lead to mistakes. It might be just a one-off bad match. I don’t think it’s indicative of any larger problem. The rotating cast of characters at outside back can’t be helping things, either.

For what it’s worth (not much at all), I’d also point out that Jacob Murphy did not mean to play the ball to Alexander Isak. He tried to control it into space for himself and got his touch completely wrong. But as I’ve said countless times, good things happen when you get guys into the box. It’s just a little annoying that Newcastle’s first goal came from their first real chance when the ball fell to their best, most in-form player partly by accident.

A few other random thoughts:

• Leandro Trossard has fallen off a cliff. He’s a fraction of the player he was last season.
• Myles Lewis-Skelly did some nice things on the ball. He’s so confident (correctly so) in his ability to ride challenges and wiggle through defenders.
• Declan Rice’s energy after Arsenal went 2-0 down was good to see. He was one of the few players whose urgency was palable (although I’m sure they were all trying and giving it their all — they just don’t have all that much to give right now).
• Arsenal miss Ben White more than anybody has realized or talked about.
• Oleksandr Zinchenko didn’t do much of anything with his limited minutes apart from picking up a yellow card three minutes after coming on.
• Why have Raheem Sterling on the bench if you’re not going to use him late in a match when you’re chasing a goal?

The Gunners have five days off before facing Manchester United in the FA Cup on Sunday. They need all the rest and recovery they can get. The fixture list is congested through early February, with matches coming every 3 and 4 days. Another tough period in an already difficult season.