If nothing else, the first round of the College Football Playoff redefined what home-field advantage could be. The four first-round home teams combined to overachieve against the spread by 39 points, which stunk for both the road teams and viewers hoping for close games. But now that we’ve unearthed this new, caustic substance, we’re unfortunately putting it away and moving back to neutral sites for better or worse. And with five of the remaining eight CFP teams within 3.8 points of each other in the updated SP+ ratings, we should now see some close games.
Below are this week’s SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
More on the CFP:
• Connelly’s first-round takeaways (E+)
• What’s next for eliminated teams? (E+)
TeamRatingOffenseDefenseSpec Tms1. Ohio St. (11-2)29.938.2 (6)8.0 (1)-0.2 (72)2. Oregon (13-0)29.041.7 (2)14.3 (8)1.5 (20)3. Ole Miss (9-3)27.937.2 (11)11.3 (3)2.1 (2)4. Alabama (9-3)26.840.0 (3)14.6 (9)1.4 (28)5. Texas (12-2)26.837.8 (9)9.4 (2)-1.6 (117)6. Georgia (11-2)26.639.5 (5)14.9 (10)2.0 (7)7. Notre Dame (12-1)26.139.7 (4)12.2 (4)-1.3 (104)8. Penn St. (12-2)24.737.7 (10)12.5 (7)-0.4 (81)9. Tennessee (10-3)23.834.5 (21)12.4 (5)1.7 (18)10. Miami (10-2)23.644.4 (1)22.5 (41)1.8 (16)11. Indiana (11-2)21.635.4 (15)15.2 (11)1.5 (25)12. S. Carolina (9-3)19.833.9 (26)15.3 (12)1.2 (35)13. Texas A&M (8-4)19.134.2 (23)17.0 (16)1.9 (10)14. SMU (11-3)18.138.1 (7)20.3 (27)0.4 (60)15. Iowa (8-4)16.827.3 (67)12.5 (6)2.0 (6)16. LSU (8-4)16.436.1 (14)20.8 (31)1.2 (36)17. Florida (8-5)15.732.5 (36)19.0 (23)2.1 (3)18. Louisville (8-4)15.538.0 (8)21.2 (35)-1.3 (105)19. BYU (10-2)14.931.9 (38)18.9 (22)1.9 (9)20. Kansas St. (8-4)14.632.1 (37)19.0 (25)1.5 (19)21. Missouri (9-3)14.233.8 (28)18.2 (20)-1.4 (106)22. Clemson (10-4)13.735.3 (16)20.4 (28)-1.2 (102)23. Boise St. (12-1)13.236.8 (13)23.4 (47)-0.2 (69)24. Va. Tech (6-6)12.632.9 (33)21.5 (37)1.2 (34)25. USC (6-6)12.234.5 (20)22.7 (42)0.4 (57)26. Colorado (9-3)11.835.1 (18)22.3 (40)-1.0 (94)27. Arkansas (6-6)11.131.1 (43)20.9 (32)0.9 (45)28. Iowa St. (10-3)11.030.2 (48)19.0 (24)-0.2 (75)29. Arizona St. (11-2)10.832.7 (35)19.9 (26)-2.1 (131)30. Oklahoma (6-6)10.326.3 (75)17.7 (19)1.7 (17)31. Baylor (8-4)10.333.8 (27)24.9 (59)1.3 (30)32. Michigan (7-5)10.224.1 (89)15.7 (14)1.8 (13)33. Minnesota (7-5)10.225.5 (80)15.6 (13)0.3 (61)34. Auburn (5-7)10.228.0 (62)17.1 (18)-0.6 (86)35. UNLV (11-3)9.932.8 (34)24.1 (51)1.2 (33)36. Illinois (9-3)9.729.3 (54)21.1 (34)1.5 (22)37. TCU (8-4)9.134.5 (22)24.0 (50)-1.4 (107)38. Duke (9-3)8.827.5 (65)18.8 (21)0.1 (65)39. Army (11-2)8.731.0 (44)23.4 (46)1.0 (42)40. Memphis (11-2)8.636.9 (12)29.3 (85)1.0 (43)41. Louisiana (10-3)7.633.4 (30)27.3 (74)1.5 (21)42. JMU (9-4)7.529.8 (51)22.9 (43)0.7 (54)43. N. Carolina (6-6)7.333.0 (32)25.5 (61)-0.2 (71)44. Utah (5-7)6.722.6 (98)17.1 (17)1.2 (32)45. Rutgers (7-5)6.127.5 (66)21.2 (36)-0.1 (67)46. Syracuse (9-3)6.135.2 (17)28.1 (82)-1.0 (96)47. Pittsburgh (7-5)5.828.4 (61)24.5 (57)1.9 (8)48. Texas St. (7-5)5.834.7 (19)28.0 (81)-0.9 (93)49. California (6-7)5.627.6 (64)21.6 (38)-0.3 (78)50. Kentucky (4-8)5.423.9 (90)20.5 (30)2.0 (5)51. Vanderbilt (6-6)5.427.9 (63)24.7 (58)2.1 (1)52. Nebraska (6-6)5.323.4 (93)16.2 (15)-1.8 (120)53. Texas Tech (8-4)5.334.1 (24)30.3 (92)1.5 (26)54. NC St. (6-6)5.230.6 (45)26.2 (68)0.7 (53)55. Tulane (9-5)5.133.1 (31)27.8 (79)-0.2 (74)56. Kansas (5-7)4.731.9 (39)26.1 (67)-1.1 (98)57. Navy (9-3)4.031.1 (42)25.5 (62)-1.6 (115)58. Ga. Tech (7-5)3.731.4 (40)26.2 (70)-1.5 (110)59. Marshall (10-3)3.329.9 (50)27.0 (72)0.3 (62)60. Boston Coll. (7-5)3.229.3 (55)24.3 (54)-1.8 (123)61. Washington (6-6)3.025.9 (77)21.0 (33)-1.9 (126)62. S. Alabama (7-6)3.030.3 (46)27.1 (73)-0.2 (73)63. Liberty (8-3)2.829.6 (52)26.2 (69)-0.6 (85)64. UCF (4-8)2.828.9 (58)25.6 (63)-0.5 (84)65. Wash. St. (8-4)2.733.9 (25)30.1 (90)-1.2 (100)66. W. Virginia (6-7)2.430.0 (49)29.4 (88)1.8 (14)67. Wisconsin (5-7)2.022.7 (97)20.4 (29)-0.3 (76)68. Ohio (11-3)1.926.8 (70)23.9 (49)-1.0 (95)69. UConn (8-4)0.527.1 (68)27.4 (75)0.8 (52)70. Cincinnati (5-7)0.425.7 (78)24.4 (56)-0.8 (91)71. Bowling Green (7-5)-0.624.5 (86)25.9 (66)0.8 (50)72. Jax State (9-5)-0.829.4 (53)28.7 (84)-1.6 (112)73. UTSA (6-6)-1.431.3 (41)33.8 (109)1.1 (39)74. ECU (7-5)-1.529.0 (57)31.1 (97)0.6 (55)75. Miami-OH (8-5)-1.720.7 (108)23.5 (48)1.2 (37)76. Ga. Southern (8-5)-1.726.6 (71)30.3 (91)1.9 (11)77. Fresno St. (6-6)-2.325.3 (82)27.6 (76)0.0 (66)78. UCLA (5-7)-2.420.1 (111)23.1 (44)0.6 (56)79. WKU (8-6)-2.621.9 (101)26.4 (71)1.8 (15)80. USF (6-6)-3.728.8 (59)33.6 (107)1.1 (40)81. Miss. St. (2-10)-3.726.2 (76)31.4 (99)1.5 (23)82. Colorado St. (8-4)-3.824.9 (84)28.0 (80)-0.7 (89)83. Toledo (7-5)-3.822.5 (99)25.1 (60)-1.2 (101)84. Virginia (5-7)-4.323.8 (91)28.5 (83)0.4 (59)85. Oklahoma St. (3-9)-4.528.5 (60)32.5 (103)-0.5 (82)86. Coastal Caro. (6-6)-4.726.9 (69)32.8 (105)1.2 (31)87. Arizona (4-8)-4.722.8 (96)29.3 (86)1.9 (12)88. Michigan St. (5-7)-4.718.1 (118)24.3 (53)1.4 (27)89. Maryland (4-8)-4.723.1 (95)27.7 (77)-0.2 (70)90. NIU (7-5)-4.918.6 (114)21.6 (39)-1.9 (125)91. ODU (5-7)-4.926.5 (73)30.9 (96)-0.5 (83)92. N. Texas (6-6)-5.033.4 (29)37.7 (121)-0.7 (87)93. Wake Forest (4-8)-5.226.4 (74)31.8 (100)0.2 (64)94. Florida St. (2-10)-5.418.3 (116)25.7 (64)2.0 (4)95. San Jose St. (7-5)-5.425.5 (79)29.3 (87)-1.6 (116)96. Buffalo (8-4)-6.324.8 (85)31.9 (101)0.8 (51)97. Troy (4-8)-7.224.4 (87)30.9 (95)-0.7 (88)98. Sam Houston (10-3)-7.818.5 (115)24.1 (52)-2.1 (133)99. Stanford (3-9)-8.024.3 (88)33.7 (108)1.5 (24)100. Houston (4-8)-8.216.8 (125)23.2 (45)-1.8 (122)101. Northwestern (4-8)-8.417.4 (123)24.4 (55)-1.5 (108)102. Oregon St. (5-7)-8.725.3 (81)33.9 (110)-0.1 (68)103. App. St. (5-6)-9.026.6 (72)34.0 (112)-1.7 (119)104. Utah St. (4-8)-10.330.3 (47)40.2 (129)-0.4 (80)105. Hawaii (5-7)-10.420.9 (107)29.5 (89)-1.8 (124)106. La. Tech (5-7)-11.116.2 (127)25.8 (65)-1.5 (111)107. Arkansas St. (7-5)-11.223.3 (94)35.7 (119)1.1 (38)108. FIU (4-8)-11.520.6 (109)30.8 (94)-1.3 (103)109. Air Force (5-7)-12.117.7 (119)27.8 (78)-2.0 (130)110. WMU (6-7)-12.223.6 (92)36.8 (120)1.0 (41)111. UAB (3-9)-12.225.3 (83)38.3 (124)0.8 (49)112. Rice (4-8)-12.320.0 (112)30.8 (93)-1.5 (109)113. FAU (3-9)-13.421.6 (102)33.3 (106)-1.6 (113)114. New Mexico (5-7)-13.729.2 (56)41.0 (131)-1.9 (128)115. EMU (5-7)-14.420.5 (110)35.3 (116)0.4 (58)116. Wyoming (3-9)-14.516.0 (129)31.3 (98)0.8 (48)117. Nevada (3-10)-15.421.2 (104)34.5 (113)-2.0 (129)118. ULM (5-7)-15.617.5 (120)32.0 (102)-1.1 (99)119. Charlotte (5-7)-15.622.3 (100)38.8 (126)0.9 (47)120. San Diego St. (3-9)-16.217.4 (122)32.6 (104)-1.0 (97)121. CMU (4-8)-17.116.6 (126)34.6 (114)0.9 (46)122. Purdue (1-11)-17.518.2 (117)33.9 (111)-1.8 (121)123. Georgia St. (3-9)-18.521.1 (105)38.0 (122)-1.6 (114)124. Akron (4-8)-18.716.0 (128)35.7 (117)1.0 (44)125. NMSU (3-9)-20.217.5 (121)38.9 (127)1.3 (29)126. Temple (3-9)-20.817.3 (124)38.4 (125)0.3 (63)127. Ball St. (3-9)-21.421.2 (103)42.3 (133)-0.3 (77)128. Tulsa (3-9)-22.121.0 (106)41.5 (132)-1.6 (118)129. UMass (2-10)-23.419.6 (113)40.9 (130)-2.1 (132)130. UTEP (3-9)-23.613.4 (131)34.8 (115)-2.2 (134)131. Kennesaw (2-10)-26.39.7 (134)35.7 (118)-0.4 (79)132. MTSU (3-9)-26.412.7 (132)38.2 (123)-0.9 (92)133. So. Miss (1-11)-26.713.9 (130)39.9 (128)-0.7 (90)134. Kent St. (0-12)-35.711.4 (133)45.1 (134)-1.9 (127)
College Football Playoff movers
When you’re near the top of the ratings already, it’s hard to impress SP+ too much more than you already have. Perhaps it’s not surprising, then, that the CFP’s losing teams saw their ratings fall by much more than the winners’ rose.
Change in SP+ ratings for CFP teams:
- Ohio State: up 0.8 adjusted points per game (no change in ranking)
- Penn State: up 0.6 points (rose from ninth to eighth)
- Notre Dame: up 0.1 points (no change)
- Texas: down 0.1 points (fell from fourth to fifth)
- Indiana: down 2.1 points (fell from 10th to 11th)
- Tennessee: down 2.2 points (fell from eighth to ninth)
- Clemson: down 2.4 points (fell from 17th to 22nd)
- SMU: down 3.5 points (fell from 12th to 14th)
Projecting the CFP from here
Here are the updated national title odds, per SP+. With the top two teams (Ohio State and Oregon) playing each other in the next round and the winner likely to play the third-best remaining team (Texas) in the semifinals, we’ve got ourselves an absolute title tossup.
- 8-seed Ohio State 19.8% (up 7.3 percentage points)
- 5-seed Texas 19.6% (up 2.4 percentage points)
- 1-seed Oregon 17.6% (down 2.8 percentage points)
- 6-seed Penn State 14.5% (up 5.6 percentage points)
- 2-seed Georgia 14.2% (down 2.4 percentage points)
- 7-seed Notre Dame 13.1% (up 4.2 percentage points)
- 3-seed Boise State 0.8% (down 0.3 percentage points)
- 4-seed Arizona State 0.4% (down 0.2 percentage points)
The title winner will likely come from the top half of the bracket, but goodness, are these odds close. Ohio State is your overall title favorite but has a less than 1-in-5 chance. (I would personally put the Buckeyes’ odds higher than that since their bogey team, Michigan, isn’t anywhere near the field. But we’ll see.)
