The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Najee Harris.
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Is Najee Harris Playing in Week 17?
Yes, Harris is playing on Christmas Day, but he hasn’t been very effective thus far. In the third quarter, he has just 21 rushing yards on seven carries (3.0 yards per attempt) while adding two receptions for seven yards.
Jaylen Warren has been significantly more effective, rushing 10 times for 62 yards (6.2 yards per attempt) plus one reception for eight yards.
It seems the Steelers are rolling with Warren since he’s the hot hand.
Should You Start or Sit Najee Harris in Week 17?
Harris is having a solid season. He already has a career-high 48 red-zone touches, and with 10.5% of his carries picking up at least 10 yards, he’s tracking for his best season in that regard as well.
That said, we seem to have hit a bit of a wall. He’s failed to reach 10 routes in every game since the George Pickens injury (one catch across those three games) and doesn’t have a run gaining more than 20 yards since the beginning of November.
Jaylen Warren got 12 carries and caught all five of his targets in Baltimore, giving us a glimpse of some juice that Harris has lacked recently. This profiles as a committee situation where I still project Harris to lead the duo in touches but with the fantasy scoring to be roughly identical.
The Chiefs are the 10th-best run defense in terms of success rate and third-best at limiting yardage after contact. We’ve seen Harris get 16-18 carries four times since the beginning of November, and that’s where I have him settling in this game. In those contests, he averaged 58 rushing yards — so this is really a situation of how lucky do you feel regarding the end zone.
I’m not in a hurry to go that direction for a home underdog with a sub-45-point total. I have Harris ranked right in the middle of the Jaguars duo as a part of an extended tier of RBs I’d rather not play but probably have to given the circumstances.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Najee Harris’ Fantasy Points Projection in Week 17
As of Thursday, Harris is projected to score 10.7 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 12.7 rushing attempts for 51.2 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. It also includes 2 receptions for 13.5 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs’ Defense
The Chiefs had another above-average game in Week 16, posting a 77.8 grade vs. the Texans. Three of this unit’s six best performances have come in the last month, vaulting Steve Spagnuolo’s group hovering around the top 10.
One encouraging sign for the Chiefs? Their steadily improving pass rush.
Kansas City posted its fifth-best non-blitz pressure rate (38.5%) of the season vs. Houston, a week after posting their sixth-best against Cleveland. For the season, the Chiefs have become a slightly above-average pressure unit (14th in non-blitz pressure rate) despite much hand-wringing about the lack of supporting pass rushers next to Chris Jones.
Kansas City’s positive turnover regression luck also continued, as the Chiefs forced two more takeaways against the Texans. That gives KC eight takeaways in its last two games after just 10 takeaways in its first 13 games combined. Only two of those takeaways have come with pressure, so the Chiefs actually have room to grow in that category, even if they can’t rely on averaging four takeaways per game over any sustained period of time.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Najee Harris’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 3:45 AM ET on Wednesday, December 25. If you’re in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Weekly Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 17 RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. DAL)
2) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at SF)
3) Derrick Henry | BAL (at HOU)
4) Bijan Robinson | ATL (at WAS)
5) Josh Jacobs | GB (at MIN)
6) De’Von Achane | MIA (at CLE)
7) Jonathan Taylor | IND (at NYG)8) Chase Brown | CIN (vs. DEN)
9) Kyren Williams | LAR (vs. ARI)
10) James Conner | ARI (at LAR)11) Bucky Irving | TB (vs. CAR)
12) Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at TB)
13) James Cook | BUF (vs. NYJ)
14) Breece Hall | NYJ (at BUF)
15) Joe Mixon | HOU (vs. BAL)
16) Aaron Jones | MIN (vs. GB)
17) Jerome Ford | CLE (vs. MIA)
18) Tony Pollard | TEN (at JAX)
19) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (vs. ATL)20) D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs. SEA)
21) Rico Dowdle | DAL (at PHI)
22) Isaac Guerendo | SF (vs. DET)
23) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs. LAC)
24) Rachaad White | TB (vs. CAR)25) Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs. IND)
26) Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at CHI)
27) Alexander Mattison | LV (at NO)
28) Isiah Pacheco | KC (at PIT)
29) Tyjae Spears | TEN (at JAX)
30) Kendre Miller | NO (vs. LV)
31) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs. TEN)32) Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs. KC)
33) Javonte Williams | DEN (at CIN)
34) Justice Hill | BAL (at HOU)35) Najee Harris | PIT (vs. KC)
36) Gus Edwards | LAC (at NE)
37) Tank Bigsby | JAX (vs. TEN)
38) Ameer Abdullah | LV (at NO)
39) Kareem Hunt | KC (at PIT)
40) Devin Singletary | NYG (vs. IND)
41) Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at WAS)
42) Kimani Vidal | LAC (at NE)43) Audric Estimé | DEN (at CIN)
44) Raheem Mostert | MIA (at CLE)
45) Ray Davis | BUF (vs. NYJ)
46) Antonio Gibson | NE (vs. LAC)
47) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. DAL)
48) Craig Reynolds | DET (at SF)
49) Cam Akers | MIN (vs. GB)50) Ty Johnson | BUF (vs. NYJ)
51) Blake Corum | LAR (vs. ARI)
52) Patrick Taylor Jr. | SF (vs. DET)
53) Roschon Johnson | CHI (vs. SEA)
54) Braelon Allen | NYJ (at BUF)55) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (vs. ATL)
56) Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN (at CIN)
57) Isaiah Davis | NYJ (at BUF)
58) D’Onta Foreman | CLE (vs. MIA)
59) Cordarrelle Patterson | PIT (vs. KC)
60) Jamaal Williams | NO (vs. LV)
61) Emanuel Wilson | GB (at MIN)
62) DeeJay Dallas | ARI (at LAR)
63) Keaton Mitchell | BAL (at HOU)64) Chris Brooks | GB (at MIN)65) Pierre Strong Jr. | CLE (vs. MIA)66) Ke’Shawn Vaughn | SF (vs. DET)
67) Trey Benson | ARI (at LAR)
68) Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at CHI)
69) Michael Carter | ARI (at LAR)
70) Sean Tucker | TB (vs. CAR)
71) Samaje Perine | KC (at PIT)72) Israel Abanikanda | SF (vs. DET)73) Ezekiel Elliott | DAL (at PHI)
74) Khalil Herbert | CIN (vs. DEN)
75) Dare Ogunbowale | HOU (vs. BAL)76) Jaylen Wright | MIA (at CLE)
77) Kyle Juszczyk | SF (vs. DET)
78) Trey Sermon | IND (at NYG)
79) Mike Boone | CAR (at TB)
80) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (vs. ATL)
81) Dameon Pierce | HOU (vs. BAL)
82) Sione Vaki | DET (at SF)83) Hunter Luepke | DAL (at PHI)
84) Alec Ingold | MIA (at CLE)
85) Tyler Goodson | IND (at NYG)
Chiefs at Steelers Trends and Insights
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs are one of 32 teams in the NFL (3.1%) – they have accounted for 13.3% of the 5+ game win streaks since the start of 2022.
QB: Patrick Mahomes recorded the longest touchdown run of his career on Saturday (15 yards) and now has a 10+ yard carry in three straight games for the first time in the regular season since Weeks 1-4 last year.
Offense: Saturday was the third time this season in which they averaged 3+ points per drive (they had three such games last regular season as well).
Defense: Kansas City has allowed under 20 points in four straight games, their third-longest streak since 2016.
Fantasy: It’s been a struggle for Isiah Pacheco of late, but it hasn’t been all his fault – 0.44 yards per carry before contact over his past three games.
Betting: Since 2022, unders are 8-1 when the Chiefs play on short rest.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: From Week 9 of 2022 through Week 2 of this season, the Steelers had one losing streak – they’ve had two since.
QB: George Pickens missed three straight games, and in those contests, Russell Wilson was 10-of-26 with one touchdown and one interception when pressured (two games prior: 14-of-24 with three scores and zero picks).
Offense: Pittsburgh has turned the ball over on 7.2% of their drives at home this season (road: 9.1%).
Defense: The Steelers have allowed 7.7 yards per pass since Week 12 (Weeks 1-11: 6.9). They are 8-0 this season, when allowing under 29 yards per drive (2-5 otherwise).
Fantasy: Najee Harris has yet to reach 45 rushing yards in a loss this season and has just seven receiving yards over his past three games (two targets earned).
Betting: Since 2005, the Steelers are 8-1 ATS on a short week in Week 15 or later (9-0 outright with a +130 point differential).
