Five wild-card games from the NFL playoffs are finished, and the divisional-round matchups for the AFC teams are officially set. The Baltimore Ravens will travel to play the Buffalo Bills next weekend, while the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans. We now also have one NFC matchup set as the Detroit Lions will host the Washington Commanders.
To look ahead at those matchups, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Chiefs and the Lions, who didn’t play this week, we asked Adam Teicher and Eric Woodyard to provide an injury update.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championships, and we provided opening lines from ESPN BET.
Let’s start with the No. 1-seeded Chiefs’ meeting with the Texans. And check back Monday when the final NFC divisional game is solidified after the Minnesota Vikings–Los Angeles Rams matchup; the winner of that game will play the Philadelphia Eagles next weekend.
Jump to a matchup:
AFC
(4) Houston Texans at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
Opening line: KC -8 (42.5)
Matchup background: The Chiefs and Texans faced off in Week 16, with Kansas City winning 27-19. The last playoff meeting between these two franchises was in the 2019 wild-card round, when the Chiefs erased a 24-0 second-quarter deficit to storm past Houston 51-31. Kansas City went on to win the Super Bowl that season. — ESPN
Stat to know: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in the divisional round, the most wins without a loss in any playoff round in NFL history. — ESPN Research
Chiefs injury update: The Chiefs should have all of their starters and key role players on their active roster available for the divisional round. That includes defensive tackle Chris Jones, who hasn’t played since Week 15 because of a strained calf muscle. Running back Isiah Pacheco and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor have also recently missed time because of injuries but should be ready to roll. Starting cornerback Jaylen Watson, who has been on injured reserve since breaking an ankle in Week 7 against the 49ers, has also been practicing and could be activated. — Adam Teicher
What we learned about the Texans in the wild-card round: After an up-and-down regular season, the Texans got stellar contributions from all three phases in their 32-12 win over the Chargers in the wild-card round. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards and running back Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown. The defense intercepted Justin Herbert four times, leading to the third-worst Total QBR of his career as a starter (13.0). Cornerback D’Angelo Ross also blocked a punt and returned a blocked extra-point attempt for a score. — DJ Bien-Aime
Why the Chiefs will win: Well, the biggest reason the Chiefs will win is that they’re playing the Texans. Houston, despite advancing to the divisional round, has not been a consistently effective offensive team since losing Stefon Diggs (knee) in Week 8. From Week 9 on, the Texans rank 27th in EPA per play on offense — including negative EPA per play on both dropbacks and designed runs against the Chargers.
Of course, the Chiefs bring more than their fair share of strengths, too, starting with quarterback Patrick Mahomes but not ending with him. Earlier this season, one could make the argument the Chiefs were short on playmaking receivers. But today it’s a different story: Kansas City traded for DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown returned from injury and Xavier Worthy has shown growth late in the season. Plus, it’s at least possible tight end Travis Kelce has simply been saving his strength for the postseason. Add that offense to a defense that still boasts some elite talents in Jones and Trent McDuffie, and Kansas City is a formidable opponent for any playoff team, let alone the Texans. — Walder
Why the Texans will win: Their pass rush. As ugly as the Texans’ offense was for most of the season — and frankly, it wasn’t great in their win over the Chargers — their pass rush always gives them a chance. Danielle Hunter led the NFL with a 26% pass rush win rate in the regular season, and he and Will Anderson Jr. were both over 25% in that category Saturday. (Denico Autry was at 21% and delivered a sack, too.) Those edge rushers against the Chiefs’ tackles represents one category in which the Texans — who are deserved underdogs — will have a clear advantage over Kansas City.
The back end of the defense matters, too. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had a great regular season and snagged two picks against Los Angeles. And don’t sleep on CB Kamari Lassiter, who didn’t allow a single reception as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and also had a pick. — Walder
(3) Baltimore Ravens at (2) Buffalo Bills
When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount)
Opening line: BUF -1 (51.5)
Matchup background: The Ravens and Bills faced off in Week 4, with Baltimore handing Buffalo a 35-10 loss — the third-worst margin of loss in quarterback Josh Allen‘s career. Lamar Jackson and Allen have played each other only once in the playoffs, and Allen holds the advantage. Buffalo beat Baltimore 17-3 in the 2020 divisional round. — ESPN
Stat to know: The Bills (30.9) and Ravens (30.5) averaged 30 points per game during the regular season. This will be the seventh matchup in NFL postseason history between two teams that averaged 30 points per game during the regular season. — ESPN Research
What we learned about the Bills in the wild-card round: This Bills team may not have peaked yet. Coming into the game against the Broncos, cornerback Rasul Douglas said the Bills still had not played their best, and Saturday’s win suggested he may be right. Buffalo scored 31 unanswered points, and the defense limited the Broncos to 2-of-9 on third down despite not forcing a takeaway, one of the unit’s strengths. But the Bills will look to avoid another slow start. — Alaina Getzenberg
play
Josh Allen and Ty Johnson connect for jaw-dropping touchdown
Bills score the touchdown on fourth down as Josh Allen scrambles and slings it to Ty Johnson, who makes a sliding catch for a touchdown.
What we learned about the Ravens in the wild-card round: Jackson has proved he can have early postseason success. In winning his past three playoff openers, he has recorded a Total QBR over 80, completed 70% of his pass attempts and thrown four touchdown passes to one interception. The challenge for Jackson has been the encore. In each of the past two playoffs, he has followed up a victory with a loss, producing a 44 QBR, 56% completion rate and one touchdown throw to two interceptions. — Jamison Hensley
Why the Bills will win: Josh Allen. Forgive the obvious answer here, but it’s just the reality. It’s fourth-and-short? Allen can deliver with his legs and barrel through a defense for a conversion. Third-and-long? He can unleash an absurd pass like his outrageous touchdown throw to Ty Johnson in the wild-card round (which actually came on fourth-and-1, but you get the idea). And he does all that while being the best in the NFL at limiting mistakes. He had the lowest sack rate (2.6%) and ranked second in turnover rate (1.2%) through the regular season.
And the fact that he plays behind an offensive line that ranked third in pass block win rate in the regular season — and allowed only two sacks against a great Denver defense — certainly helps. As does the support Allen receives from his running backs. No team generated more EPA on running back targets than Buffalo.
The Ravens could be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers (knee) again, and that’s certainly a point in Buffalo’s favor if so. Though Baltimore has shown it is capable of winning on the ground, the Bills’ defense was better against the run in the regular season (eighth in EPA per play against designed runs) than the pass (20th against dropbacks). They did struggle against scrambles, which will be an issue facing Jackson. So the Bills are likely going to need plenty of points to beat Baltimore — with or without Flowers. — Walder
Why the Ravens will win: Their running attack borders on unstoppable. Baltimore showed it won’t hold back from using Jackson’s legs in the postseason — he ran 14 times in the Ravens’ win over the Steelers (kneels excluded) — and the combination of him and running back Derrick Henry makes life brutal for defenses. Read plays in the wild-card round were incredibly effective, as Steelers defenders were forced to account for both Jackson and Henry, resulting in fewer players in the path of the actual ball carrier.
To beat the Bills, however, it will require a solid effort on both sides of the ball. Fortunately, that’s no longer an issue for the Ravens. Since they moved Kyle Hamilton back to primarily deep safety in Week 11, Baltimore ranks first in EPA allowed per play on defense, postseason included. — Walder
NFC
(6) Washington Commanders at (1) Detroit Lions
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)
Opening line: DET -8.5 (54.5)
Matchup background: The Lions and Commanders last faced off in Week 2 of the 2022 season. Quarterback Jared Goff helped Detroit earn the 36-27 win by throwing for 256 yards and four touchdowns. The last time Washington and Detroit met in the postseason was on Jan. 8, 2000 — before Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was born. Washington took that one 27-13. – ESPN
Stat to know: Daniels will face the Lions, who went 15-2 this season, tied with the Chiefs for the best record in the NFL. This will be the sixth time in the Super Bowl era that a rookie QB will face a team that had at least a share of the best record in the league. Only one of the previous five rookies won — Joe Flacco and the Ravens in 2008 against the 13-3 Titans. — ESPN Research
Lions injury update: The Lions are expecting running back David Montgomery (knee), who missed the past three games, to return for the divisional round. Guard Kevin Zeitler (hamstring) and cornerback Terrion Arnold (foot) were both injured in their Week 18 win over the Vikings, and coach Dan Campbell said that he couldn’t guarantee that either will be playing. However, Campbell acknowledged, “It’s much better than it appeared to be when the injuries happened. So it’s positive news.” — Eric Woodyard
What we learned about the Commanders in the wild-card round: Washington will be a tough out in the postseason because it has a young quarterback in Daniels who does not cave to pressure. Daniels has delivered all season in leading five game-winning drives. His poise and playmaking ability will scare any defense. Another big key for Washington on Sunday was the defense, which limited Tampa Bay to 284 total yards and only 101 on the ground — 36 fewer than its average allowed. That must continue. — John Keim
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Why the Lions will win: Overwhelming offensive force. The Lions enter the divisional round as clear favorites — as they should be, given the way this team can score points. Detroit ranked second in both EPA per play (0.17) and per drive (0.96) this season. And there’s no reason to think that won’t continue. The Lions’ offense is healthy and rested after the team’s bye week.
Plus, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has shown his creativity with lateral plays, receiver passes, offensive lineman receptions and everything in between all season long. Can you imagine what he has been saving for the playoffs?
The question now is whether the Lions’ injury-marred defense can hold up. But they have linebacker Alex Anzalone back, and the last time we saw their defense, it shut down Sam Darnold and the Vikings en route to an NFC North title in Week 18. — Walder
Why the Commanders will win: Daniels can beat the blitz, which gives the Commanders a prayer. The Lions’ defense had its best game of the season in the finale against the Vikings, and it achieved that success via the blitz, bringing extra heat on 56% of Minnesota’s dropbacks to help make up for all the defensive injuries. But a similar game plan could backfire against the Commanders.
As good of a rookie season as Daniels had, he was even better against the blitz with a 90.3 QBR (third-best). The blitz increased the rate of deep shots Daniels took and allowed him to gain more yards on his scrambles. That could create the high-variance type of game the Commanders would like to play as heavy underdogs. Detroit could take a different tact, but that might expose its injury-induced weaknesses. Daniels’ excellence against extra rushers gives the Commanders an outside chance here. — Walder
TBD at (2) Philadelphia Eagles
When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
Who they could play: Philadelphia will host the winner of Monday night’s game between the (5) Minnesota Vikings and (4) Los Angeles Rams.
What we learned about the Eagles in the wild-card round: The defense is capable of carrying this team, even in the postseason. Vic Fangio’s group finished the regular season first in yards allowed per play (4.7) and second in points allowed (17.8 ppg). That dominance continued against the Packers and quarterback Jordan Love, who had gone seven-plus games without an interception but was victimized for three picks on Sunday. In a game where Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts struggled to establish a rhythm following a two-week absence due to a concussion, the defense once again proved it is the most consistent unit on a championship-hopeful team. — Tim McManus
